Bitcoin (BTC) is rising strongly: end of Bear Market or simple bullish correction?
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) prices have exploded this week. The hope of a short-term bullish recovery is back but after such a strong rise, what are the different scenarios to watch? The point in this new technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin (BTC) facing a large resistance wall
After evolving in a stable fashion for long weeks, the Bitcoin price (BTC) soared and regained +12.5% of its value in one week. Now, its price is trying to break through a sizeable resistance zone since it is the $19,000 / $20,000 area that provided support during the long range from June to November 2022.
Figure 1 – Bitcoin Daily price chart
Although this rise is encouraged and is approaching critical levels, Bitcoin still remains in a downtrend with ever lower tops. We also see that the price stumbles surgically both on the Daily trendline but also on the level of 0.618 Fibonacci.
Moreover, this $19,000 area is exactly the bottom of the old 6-month range. As a reminder, any broken support will become resistance, so it is likely that the price will see rejection in the next few days and correct, at least temporarily.
If the price came to confirm the reintegration of the range by performing a pullback on the top of the ichomoku cloud, for example, then there would be a strong probability that the price would then seek the Kijun Weekly at 20,360, or even the middle from the Daily range at $21,500. This rise must be done in stages to present the different supports and to be able to accumulate as much liquidity as possible with a view to breaking this very large wall of resistance.
In the opposite case, if the price does not allow it to stay inside the range, it should return to test its support at $15,800. At that time, it will be imperative to hold this level, otherwise there will be strong risks of seeing the price fall towards the Bear Flag target which is still active at $14,300.
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A reversal pattern for Bitcoin (BTC) in h4?
By depending the local highs and lows on each other, the price of BTC shows us (in lower time frame) a price that is increasingly volatile inside a chart pattern called “ascending widening wedge”. This type of pattern is rather known to break from the bottom, so it is worth staying vigilant as this coincides with the very important resistance level characterized by the old Daily range.
The odds of this pattern tend to push the price towards a breakout from below, towards around $14,500. So the question is, will the buyers be able to beat the odds and send the price back above $20,000 with that target at $21,350? Answer in the next few days.
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Ether (ETH) must break its resistance h4
Regarding Ether (ETH) price, it is moving in a bullish channel and is currently below its resistance. It will be interesting to watch this asset over the next few days to see if the price manages to break this pattern from the top, or if we are again on a local top of the market.
Figure 3 – Ether price chart (H4)
Here, the breakout target would be around $1,631. However, the pattern being rather bearish on Bitcoin, watch out that it doesn’t have a rejection or else Ether should follow towards $1,050.
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Conclusion of this analysis technique
Bitcoin and Ether stall under significant resistance. We will have to break them to consider a new bullish impulse in the coming days, otherwise pay attention to the bearish objectives which could quickly make us lose this good progress of the last few days.
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Graphic source: TradingView
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