Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen examines historical patterns of Bitcoin bear markets to estimate when BTC could hit rock bottom.
In a new strategy session, Cowen says it would be reasonable to expect a bottoming scenario similar to 2018, where BTC price made a series of slightly higher lows before abruptly capitulating to new lows. hollow to reach its floor.
“So far in 2022, advocating for the bottom hasn’t really served anyone, and that’s why at the start of the year we said, ‘Look, don’t waste too much mental energy trying to call a bottom in 2022…”
When you are in a bear market, you just give it a little more time and we tend to go down.
If you were to follow a similar type of pattern here – we could kind of extrapolate the 200 day simple moving average if it were to continue on its current path, where might it intersect? »
Based on the historical comparison, Cowen says that a potential capitulation event could occur around December 25 of this year, where Bitcoin bottoms out before preparing for another bull market.
“You could see that he would cross somewhere at the end of December, just around Christmas, December 25, December 26, December 27, around the holidays, that’s where he would cross.
I can’t really say for sure, obviously, if it’s going to play out exactly the same way, but I will say this. This bear market has been going on for over a year now, and historically, bear markets for Bitcoin last around a year. The 2014 one lasted 14 months, and the 2018 one lasted about 12 months, so in that context, you could say we’re well within the window of when the lows typically occur in terms of time.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading hands for $16,608, a fractional drop for the day.
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