Bitcoin’s fall began in late 2021 and continues to this day. Experts talk about the onset of the crypto winter, but at the same time many are sure that today it is possible to replenish their crypto wallets.
From a technical analysis perspective, a further fall in Bitcoin is also possible. The cryptocurrency has been falling for a year now: on November 7, 2021, the price of BTC reached its last high ($65,125) and has been falling steadily since then, making short stops and then breaking through again level and descending. During the stops, the price moves in a small range for several months, and the longer this stop, the steeper the fall. For example, from mid-June until recently, this move was seen within a relatively narrow $19,000-20,000 range. During this time, Bitcoin price fell to a local low ($15.9k) and rose again (to $24.5k). Often, Bitcoin falls just before the next rise.
Now, many people say the onset of the crypto winter was inevitable, but no one could have predicted its current magnitude. But every market is cyclical, and the cryptocurrency market is no exception in this sense. It works by the same laws as financial ups and downs are replaced by downs. For example, for the period 2016-2020, cryptocurrencies have come full circle. In 2016 there was a decline in the exchange rate, in 2017 – active growth, and from 2018 to mid-2019 – a crypto winter. The current situation seems similar: recession, recovery, growth and again a decline towards the heights. Based on cycle theory, it is possible to predict a crypto winter period with the current price level until around summer 2023 to start again.
Why does Bitcoin always fall before a new phase of growth? This is the classic behavior of a highly volatile and risky asset like a cryptocurrency. Global global processes influence investor behavior and the mood of the crowd, which most often dictates an asset’s behavior. Simply put, the news backdrop sells the crowd when the ‘whales’ and funds actively buy it at favorable prices, which is a platform for growth, and then sell the asset at levels higher or build up to new future highs.
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